Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual — the return remaining after the model's specified market, sector, and subsector exposures — is the component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.5B
Holdings
40
Top-10 weight
67%
Modeled AUM is the sum of disclosed long US equity positions that join the ERM3 universe — not firm-wide AUM. 13F books omit shorts, most derivatives, and non-US holdings.
Evidence
13F · disclosed-long analysis
Holdings as of
2026-03-31
Filed
2026-06-14
Model
ERM3 v3.0
Form 13F discloses long US positions only, on a delayed filing schedule; short positions and most derivatives are not reported.
Selection signature
Exposure-driven
29% of Voss Capital, LP's risk is stock-specific over the full monthly history of the reported 13F book — the structural read. Stock selection added 88% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
61%
29%
Tracked-pension composite · 11 mgrs
75%
19%
At a glance
Selection signature
29% of risk
Exposure-driven
Replicable exposure
70%
Balanced
Mandate style
Small Value
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 17.8
Diversified
Return attribution
AIVoss Capital, LP's +7.6% trailing-year return was led by market beta (+14.8% market); stock selection contributed -6.7%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-6.8%
-3.2%
-5.0%
+7.6%
− Market
broad-market beta
-6.0%
-5.3%
-2.1%
+14.8%
− Sector
sector timing
-1.4%
+2.9%
+1.2%
2 · Stock-selection residual
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-6.7%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
14%
stock-specific share of monthly portfolio variance · trailing 12 months
Return from selection
88%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Small Value
Style concentration (HHI)
0.28
Effective styles
3.5
Effective N (positions)
17.8
5 · Peer context
Peer ranks unavailable for this manager.
98% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and residual shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-06-14. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual — the return remaining after the model's specified market, sector, and subsector exposures — is the component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.5B
Holdings
40
Top-10 weight
67%
Modeled AUM is the sum of disclosed long US equity positions that join the ERM3 universe — not firm-wide AUM. 13F books omit shorts, most derivatives, and non-US holdings.
Evidence
13F · disclosed-long analysis
Holdings as of
2026-03-31
Filed
2026-06-14
Model
ERM3 v3.0
Form 13F discloses long US positions only, on a delayed filing schedule; short positions and most derivatives are not reported.
Selection signature
Exposure-driven
29% of Voss Capital, LP's risk is stock-specific over the full monthly history of the reported 13F book — the structural read. Stock selection added 88% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
61%
29%
Tracked-pension composite · 11 mgrs
75%
19%
At a glance
Selection signature
29% of risk
Exposure-driven
Replicable exposure
70%
Balanced
Mandate style
Small Value
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 17.8
Diversified
Return attribution
AIVoss Capital, LP's +7.6% trailing-year return was led by market beta (+14.8% market); stock selection contributed -6.7%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-6.8%
-3.2%
-5.0%
+7.6%
− Market
broad-market beta
-6.0%
-5.3%
-2.1%
+14.8%
− Sector
sector timing
-1.4%
+2.9%
+1.2%
2 · Stock-selection residual
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-6.7%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
14%
stock-specific share of monthly portfolio variance · trailing 12 months
Return from selection
88%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Small Value
Style concentration (HHI)
0.28
Effective styles
3.5
Effective N (positions)
17.8
5 · Peer context
Peer ranks unavailable for this manager.
98% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and residual shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-06-14. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Residual risk
-0.1%
− Subsector
industry timing
-0.1%
-1.4%
-1.6%
-2.4%
= Buyable exposure
replicable in ETFs
-7.4%
-3.8%
-2.5%
+12.2%
Stock selection (residual return)
net of market/sector/subsector · cohort evidence: persists OOS
+0.2%
-0.6%
-3.3%
-6.7%
Risk attribution
AI29% of the book's risk is stock-specific; the rest is broad-market (61%) and sector exposure.
Layer
Detail
Full
Recent
− Market
broad-market beta
61%
71%
− Sector
sector exposure
3%
10%
− Subsector
industry exposure
3%
1%
= Buyable exposure
replicable
67%
82%
Residual risk share
stock-specific share of variance — where selection can show up