Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual — the return remaining after the model's specified market, sector, and subsector exposures — is the component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.4B
Holdings
7
Top-10 weight
100%
Modeled AUM is the sum of disclosed long US equity positions that join the ERM3 universe — not firm-wide AUM. 13F books omit shorts, most derivatives, and non-US holdings.
Evidence
13F · disclosed-long analysis
Holdings as of
2026-03-31
Filed
2026-06-14
Model
ERM3 v3.0
Form 13F discloses long US positions only, on a delayed filing schedule; short positions and most derivatives are not reported.
Selection signature
Selection-driven
52% of Theleme Partners LLP's risk is stock-specific over the full monthly history of the reported 13F book — the structural read. Stock selection added 55% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
37%
52%
Tracked-pension composite · 11 mgrs
75%
19%
At a glance
Selection signature
52% of risk
Selection-driven
Replicable exposure
48%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Growth
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.5
Concentrated
Peer rank · Large tier
#38 / 1443
Return attribution
AITheleme Partners LLP's +10.2% trailing-year return was led by market beta (+17.0% market); stock selection contributed -5.6%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-7.2%
+0.1%
+0.4%
+10.2%
− Market
broad-market beta
-6.2%
-5.5%
-2.4%
+17.0%
− Sector
sector timing
-2.1%
+0.6%
+1.1%
2 · Stock-selection residual
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-5.6%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
39%
stock-specific share of monthly portfolio variance · trailing 12 months
Return from selection
55%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Growth
Style concentration (HHI)
0.50
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.5
5 · Peer context
#38 / 1443
In the Large AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
100% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and residual shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-06-14. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual — the return remaining after the model's specified market, sector, and subsector exposures — is the component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.4B
Holdings
7
Top-10 weight
100%
Modeled AUM is the sum of disclosed long US equity positions that join the ERM3 universe — not firm-wide AUM. 13F books omit shorts, most derivatives, and non-US holdings.
Evidence
13F · disclosed-long analysis
Holdings as of
2026-03-31
Filed
2026-06-14
Model
ERM3 v3.0
Form 13F discloses long US positions only, on a delayed filing schedule; short positions and most derivatives are not reported.
Selection signature
Selection-driven
52% of Theleme Partners LLP's risk is stock-specific over the full monthly history of the reported 13F book — the structural read. Stock selection added 55% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
37%
52%
Tracked-pension composite · 11 mgrs
75%
19%
At a glance
Selection signature
52% of risk
Selection-driven
Replicable exposure
48%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Growth
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.5
Concentrated
Peer rank · Large tier
#38 / 1443
Return attribution
AITheleme Partners LLP's +10.2% trailing-year return was led by market beta (+17.0% market); stock selection contributed -5.6%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-7.2%
+0.1%
+0.4%
+10.2%
− Market
broad-market beta
-6.2%
-5.5%
-2.4%
+17.0%
− Sector
sector timing
-2.1%
+0.6%
+1.1%
2 · Stock-selection residual
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-5.6%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
39%
stock-specific share of monthly portfolio variance · trailing 12 months
Return from selection
55%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Growth
Style concentration (HHI)
0.50
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.5
5 · Peer context
#38 / 1443
In the Large AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
100% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and residual shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-06-14. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Residual risk
-0.6%
− Subsector
industry timing
+2.1%
-0.9%
+0.3%
+1.2%
= Buyable exposure
replicable in ETFs
-6.2%
-5.7%
-1.1%
+17.6%
Stock selection (residual return)
net of market/sector/subsector · cohort evidence: persists OOS
-1.1%
+7.1%
+3.6%
-5.6%
Risk attribution
AI52% of the book's risk is stock-specific; the rest is broad-market (37%) and sector exposure.
Layer
Detail
Full
Recent
− Market
broad-market beta
37%
52%
− Sector
sector exposure
5%
5%
− Subsector
industry exposure
5%
4%
= Buyable exposure
replicable
47%
60%
Residual risk share
stock-specific share of variance — where selection can show up