Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or genuine stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual is the one component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.1B
Holdings
6
Top-10 weight
100%
As of
2025-12-31
Filed
2026-03-16
Selection signature
Selection-driven
65% of Theleme Partners LLP's risk is stock-specific — the structural read. Stock selection added 339% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
30%
65%
Tracked-pension composite · 12 mgrs
73%
22%
▸Key
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Stock selection
At a glance
Selection signature
65% of risk
Selection-driven
Replicable exposure
35%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Blend
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.5
Concentrated
Peer rank · Large tier
#45 / 1432
Return attribution
AITheleme Partners LLP's -8.6% trailing-year return was led by stock selection (+20.7% market); stock selection contributed -29.3%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
+2.5%
-2.8%
-3.7%
-8.6%
− Market
broad-market beta
+0.1%
+3.2%
+13.3%
+20.7%
− Sector
sector timing
+0.9%
+2.3%
+2.4%
2 · Residual skill score
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-29.3%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
43%
stock-specific share of portfolio variance
Return from selection
339%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Blend
Style concentration (HHI)
0.50
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.5
5 · Peer context
#45 / 1432
In the Large AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
100% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and skill shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-03-16. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Manager Skill Review
Theleme Partners LLP
Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or genuine stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual is the one component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$1.1B
Holdings
6
Top-10 weight
100%
As of
2025-12-31
Filed
2026-03-16
Selection signature
Selection-driven
65% of Theleme Partners LLP's risk is stock-specific — the structural read. Stock selection added 339% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
30%
65%
Tracked-pension composite · 12 mgrs
73%
22%
▸Key
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Stock selection
At a glance
Selection signature
65% of risk
Selection-driven
Replicable exposure
35%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Blend
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.5
Concentrated
Peer rank · Large tier
#45 / 1432
Return attribution
AITheleme Partners LLP's -8.6% trailing-year return was led by stock selection (+20.7% market); stock selection contributed -29.3%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
+2.5%
-2.8%
-3.7%
-8.6%
− Market
broad-market beta
+0.1%
+3.2%
+13.3%
+20.7%
− Sector
sector timing
+0.9%
+2.3%
+2.4%
2 · Residual skill score
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
-29.3%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
43%
stock-specific share of portfolio variance
Return from selection
339%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Blend
Style concentration (HHI)
0.50
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.5
5 · Peer context
#45 / 1432
In the Large AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
100% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and skill shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-03-16. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
+3.3%
− Subsector
industry timing
-0.1%
+0.9%
+2.0%
-0.7%
= Buyable exposure
replicable in ETFs
+0.9%
+6.4%
+17.6%
+23.2%
Stock selection
residual skill · persists OOS
+1.7%
-8.2%
-19.4%
-29.3%
Risk attribution
AI65% of the book's risk is stock-specific; the rest is broad-market (30%) and sector exposure.