Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or genuine stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual is the one component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$11.5B
Holdings
7
Top-10 weight
100%
As of
2025-12-31
Filed
2026-03-16
Selection signature
Mixed
44% of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s risk is stock-specific — the structural read. Stock selection added 40% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
49%
44%
Tracked-pension composite · 12 mgrs
73%
22%
▸Key
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Stock selection
At a glance
Selection signature
44% of risk
Mixed
Replicable exposure
56%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Blend
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.9
Concentrated
Peer rank · Mega tier
#5 / 420
Return attribution
AIPershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s +29.0% trailing-year return was led by stock selection (+9.5% market); stock selection contributed +11.7%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-5.4%
+0.5%
+9.9%
+29.0%
− Market
broad-market beta
+0.1%
+2.5%
+9.9%
+9.5%
− Sector
sector timing
+0.1%
-1.3%
-1.5%
2 · Residual skill score
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
+11.7%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
44%
stock-specific share of portfolio variance
Return from selection
40%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Blend
Style concentration (HHI)
0.51
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.9
5 · Peer context
#5 / 420
In the Mega AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
83% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and skill shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-03-16. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
Manager Skill Review
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.
Where is this manager's return actually coming from — replicable market and sector exposure, or genuine stock selection? Pulled live from the latest 13F and decomposed through the ERM3 cascade. The stock-selection residual is the one component that persists out of sample.
Modeled AUM
$11.5B
Holdings
7
Top-10 weight
100%
As of
2025-12-31
Filed
2026-03-16
Selection signature
Mixed
44% of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s risk is stock-specific — the structural read. Stock selection added 40% of the trailing return (which swings with the window). The rest is buyable market, sector, and style exposure — a descriptive read, not a recommendation.
Risk decomposition
This manager
49%
44%
Tracked-pension composite · 12 mgrs
73%
22%
▸Key
Market
Sector
Subsector
Style tilt
Stock selection
At a glance
Selection signature
44% of risk
Mixed
Replicable exposure
56%
Balanced
Mandate style
Large Blend
Multi-style
Concentration
eff. N 5.9
Concentrated
Peer rank · Mega tier
#5 / 420
Return attribution
AIPershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s +29.0% trailing-year return was led by stock selection (+9.5% market); stock selection contributed +11.7%.
Layer
Detail
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Gross return
total realized
-5.4%
+0.5%
+9.9%
+29.0%
− Market
broad-market beta
+0.1%
+2.5%
+9.9%
+9.5%
− Sector
sector timing
+0.1%
-1.3%
-1.5%
2 · Residual skill score
The stock-selection residual — return left after market, sector, subsector, and style are stripped away. This is the component the research shows persists out of sample (forward Q5−Q1 +2.3pp, t≈3.4), while sector- and style-timing do not.
Stock-selection return
+11.7%
trailing, gross — residual after market / sector / subsector
Residual risk share
44%
stock-specific share of portfolio variance
Return from selection
40%
of gross return this window
Out-of-sample persistence
+2.3pp · t≈3.4
forward Q5−Q1 across the study cohort — not this manager
Gross ranking signal within mandate; net-of-fee outcomes depend on fees and implementation. Not a claim of net-of-fee outperformance. See the evidence →
4 · Mandate fit
Dominant style
Large Blend
Style concentration (HHI)
0.51
Effective styles
2.0
Effective N (positions)
5.9
5 · Peer context
#5 / 420
In the Mega AUM cohort by top10 weight sum (1m).
83% of reported AUM is in the ERM3 model universe; attribution and skill shares cover that sleeve.
Run this on your managers
This is a live example. Send us a roster — 13F managers or your own holdings sleeves — and we'll return a Manager Skill Review and a board-ready IC memo for each. Print or PDF this page for the memo format.
Live data from SEC Form 13F via the RiskModels ERM3 model, filed 2026-03-16. Figures are gross, holdings-derived, and within-mandate. Informational use only — not investment advice.
+9.5%
− Subsector
industry timing
-0.2%
-1.7%
-2.3%
-2.8%
= Buyable exposure
replicable in ETFs
+0.0%
-0.4%
+6.1%
+16.2%
Stock selection
residual skill · persists OOS
-5.5%
+1.0%
+3.9%
+11.7%
Risk attribution
AI44% of the book's risk is stock-specific; the rest is broad-market (49%) and sector exposure.